Epoch AI measures how fast the cost of a given level of AI performance is falling across five benchmarks covering math, science and games of skill: about 47% per quarter, or 13x per year, since 2023, faster than electricity, compute, batteries or DNA sequencing ever fell.
At this point the cloud model firms are basically banking on making a superinteligence before anyone else and taking over the planet, otherwise they go bankrupt. I wish I was kidding.
Nvidia wins either way though, local models, cloud models, shovels always sell. So they have that overvalued but still realistic bedrock to build houses of cards on.
Nvidia wins unless some other company starts selling cheaper, faster, more efficient matrix multiplication machines.
I’ve read some articles about radically different inference architectures that may tilt the scales, but I know this is wishful thinking because I really would like Nvidia to fail badly.
Plenty have tried, all have fallen over flat on their face when it comes to actually providing usable drivers or production at scale. AMD’s still completely half assing it even today and Intel’s OneAPI and Vino is a bloated joke.
But yes I would love a future where AMD finally hires an actual software team.
At this point the cloud model firms are basically banking on making a superinteligence before anyone else and taking over the planet, otherwise they go bankrupt. I wish I was kidding.
Nvidia wins either way though, local models, cloud models, shovels always sell. So they have that overvalued but still realistic bedrock to build houses of cards on.
Nvidia wins unless some other company starts selling cheaper, faster, more efficient matrix multiplication machines.
I’ve read some articles about radically different inference architectures that may tilt the scales, but I know this is wishful thinking because I really would like Nvidia to fail badly.
Linus_nvidia.gif
Plenty have tried, all have fallen over flat on their face when it comes to actually providing usable drivers or production at scale. AMD’s still completely half assing it even today and Intel’s OneAPI and Vino is a bloated joke.
But yes I would love a future where AMD finally hires an actual software team.