I know chip and RAM fabs are incredibly difficult and expensive to build, but how is the several trillion $ out there just up for grabs for anyone that can undercut the like 4 companies that have one not enough for tons of huge companies to say “I don’t care what it costs, I don’t care what you have to do, because even if I pay 50x what it costs nvidia to make a fab, I will still be scrooging like a villain”?
For western-oriented companies, it’s a trap. All RAM makers outside China are in a single cartel. When anyone tries to undercut prices, they all lower their prices too and starve out the new competitor. Then, prices go up again.
This is why only China can solve the RAM crisis. They need their own full-scale domestic RAM production for geopolitical reasons and are therefore not disincentivized by the cartel existing.
Protectionists complain about Chinese market dominance, yet Chinese companies are the only ones entering the DRAM market in response to the dramatic increase in demand.
I wouldn’t enter a cartel-protected market either if I had to finance that myself. If I had a captive bloc-sized market at home though…
China is big. There are a lot of customers there. And the government tends to plan long-term and is heavily subsidizing chip making tech for geopolitical reasons. Entering the western market is high-risk. Entering the Chinese market as a Chinese company and then also selling outside China after scaling up is low-risk.It is way too late to be starting a new chip fab for it to be relevant to the current market. If they are producing reliable chips 5 years from now that’ll be fast.
China speed will kick in and it will be next year they will own the market.
They have a domestic market to serve first. And they are fast at scaling up - but not that fast.
Give them half a decade.Not likely. It doesn’t matter how much slave labor you throw at it, getting a new fabrication machine to the necessary precision to make modern chips requires a lot of time.
I mean making the machines to make chips and making a factory that uses said machines are two different things.
There are already factories in China making DDR5 and DDR4 ram now days.
Huawei would just provide the support and resources needed to scale up a new large factory.
No slave labor needed. All you need is a modern, advanced, high skill, responsive industrial base which China has.
I mean making the machines to make chips and making a factory that uses said machines are two different things.
True.
There are already factories in China making DDR5 and DDR4 ram now days.
Are they actually fabricating the silicon, or just packaging it?
No slave labor needed. All you need is a modern, advanced, high skill, responsive industrial base which China has.
Sure, like the people working at Foxconn:
https://truthout.org/articles/a-suicide-survivor-the-life-of-a-chinese-migrant-worker-at-foxconn/
They are making it from scratch. There are lots of sources but this is the first one I found. I assume they package it as well.
Foxcom assembles sub models into complete products. Still higher than slave labor level skills, but not as high as chip fabrication I admit. You need a skill base to assemble phones at a high level.
China speed proves real every time though
Cxmt is already one of their most valuable companies in the stock market
My guess is this is why Huawei wants in on the action
Maybe they are aiming for something like Temu: ultra low quality, super cheap and ready to flood the market in 6 months
Understanding it’ll take some time for any competition to have an impact, it’s still nice to see that someone, somewhere in the world is looking at this manufactured scarcity and deciding not to exploit it.
There’s a reason. US is buying all memory fab capacity to deprive other countries, including China, from having access to RAM. The RAM companies, taking advantage of this situation and colluding, are raising prices and limiting production to create false scarcity. Unfortunately this means the average American has to pay arm and a leg for even small amounts of memory and storage.
I brought up last time that if RAM prices keep going up and up, it makes more economic sense to make more factories/facilities.
Theres always those people who say that it doesn’t make sense to make new facilities, but I really dont see chip shortages to stop. With climate change being a thing and supply chain issues popping up more and more, I just dont see an end within the next 10 years. Makes more sense to bring some of that in house.
“YOU WERE SUPPOSED TO BREAK THE MONOPOLY! NOT JOIN THEM!”
5 years from now.
5 years if they plan to just stick with 7nm. 5nm will take a good 10 years and the even more advanced stuff is 15+ years.
At this point I’d settle for 5cm, if it helped prices at all.
Even if you started a few years ago, you won’t get a working fab producing anything within 5 years and that is considering if it’s a 5 or 7nm chip. If you want anything as advanced as tsmc 2nm chips, you’re well within 10-15+ years.
I live in Taiwan and have friends who work at TSMC. They are NOT kidding around when it comes to security. No personal cellphones. No smart devices. My buddy couldn’t get approved for a basic pedometer.
I’m aware you probably didn’t mean it like this (or maybe did), but it kind of sounds like you’re saying they’re better of not doing anything at all. Who cares about long term goals 🤷♂️
No, I’m saying this article is literally meaningless. Nobody knows what the hell will happen in 1 year let alone 15+ years later.
Assuming TSMC or Samsung or hell, even Intel didn’t do ANY improvements or even finish the fabs they are CURRENTLY working on. Even with this rare assumption, Huawei won’t effect the market. They are simply too far behind the tech to be able to make a difference.
Huawei is far ahead of Nvidia in AI clusters despite sanctions made against it, and 5 year behind tech stack. 50% cost/performance advantage over GB300 nvl72, (including building costs) by building outdoor siteable pods with 3 week lead times. CXMT is now most valuable company in China, but because of Huawei sanctions, they sell 64gb ddr5 modules at higher price than Samsung just to Huawei. Huawei needs its own RAM fab because it is harassed by west, and Chinese suppliers price to them with “captured customer” awareness.
And they should rightly ban sales to the US. Check mate orange man.
I voted democrat the last 15 years, yet because im in the usa, fuck me right? go fuck yourself
I vote Democrats. Yes. Because they’re any better. 🥲
