Many effects took place. That said I think you’re wrong about the speed of the effects. There were quick and sizeable effects. However Russia simply reshuffled the economy. Russia, or any country, doesn’t need to export or import anything if they’re self sufficient. They can replace the lost income from those exports with public investment into something else. For example military production and soldiers. And that’s what they did. Now Russia isn’t self sufficient but China has filled the gap for their high tech import needs and is taking Russian fossil fuels in exchange. So is India. Given that Russia has both markets for its export and sources for its necessary imports, I don’t believe there’s any further effects from sanctions we could expect. That’s how I read the tea leaves anyway.
Right, sanctions only work effectively when the two most populous and resource hungry countries in the world don’t actively support the sanctioned country. China I understand, as it’s a proxy war with the West. India seems to be moving in a direction that I didn’t see them moving even a few years ago.
Russia doesn’t export high tech into China if I read you right. And it doesn’t produce much for it’s authonomy in spite for the move for импортозамещение or replacing exports. It still depends on things they import, including chips for military production and some casual things like home devices, ingredients for brewing etc.
Partially, but most goes through grey channels and would do so. Intel 13k, nVidia 4k, they all happen to get there from China but with more and more variable locations on the way.
Many effects took place. That said I think you’re wrong about the speed of the effects. There were quick and sizeable effects. However Russia simply reshuffled the economy. Russia, or any country, doesn’t need to export or import anything if they’re self sufficient. They can replace the lost income from those exports with public investment into something else. For example military production and soldiers. And that’s what they did. Now Russia isn’t self sufficient but China has filled the gap for their high tech import needs and is taking Russian fossil fuels in exchange. So is India. Given that Russia has both markets for its export and sources for its necessary imports, I don’t believe there’s any further effects from sanctions we could expect. That’s how I read the tea leaves anyway.
Right, sanctions only work effectively when the two most populous and resource hungry countries in the world don’t actively support the sanctioned country. China I understand, as it’s a proxy war with the West. India seems to be moving in a direction that I didn’t see them moving even a few years ago.
Russia doesn’t export high tech into China if I read you right. And it doesn’t produce much for it’s authonomy in spite for the move for импортозамещение or replacing exports. It still depends on things they import, including chips for military production and some casual things like home devices, ingredients for brewing etc.
I meant they are not self-sufficient in tech but they can fulfill those needs by importing from China and India.
Partially, but most goes through grey channels and would do so. Intel 13k, nVidia 4k, they all happen to get there from China but with more and more variable locations on the way.