- cross-posted to:
- politics@lemmy.world
- cross-posted to:
- politics@lemmy.world
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Since then, betting markets show Orbán’s stock has fallen marginally, though there is no suggestion that his declining fortunes have been caused by Vance’s intervention.
So betting markets not polls, which would be pricing in the diminishing uncertainty as the day draws near, and it wasn’t like a sudden drop either.
There might not be a story here. Orban was losing, and he’s still losing.
So someone will bet big on him on Friday and they’ll do everything possible that he wins.
If you’re in Fidesz you already have a major financial stake in him winning. And maybe a stay-out-of-jail stake.
Remember Trumps son is a part of pollymarkets board
Hopefully he doesn’t lose like Nicolas Maduro lost the last election.
*based on odds on fucking polymarket. This is not news
Thanks for saving me a click
What, she couldn’t have just had OpenAI write the article for her?
If you see the line “Why it matters”, it’s very probably written by AI
I do rather hate that so many news orgs seem to be using polymarket et al as a drop-in replacement for actual polling, because polymarket is loosely affiliated, if at all, with reality. It’s a fucking betting platform. There’s nothing scientific or statistical about it that aligns with demographic realities.
Newsweek has always been a questionable source since its purchase by the notorious IBT. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wikipedia:Reliable_sources/Perennial_sources#Newsweek_(2013-present)
Not to mention that a quality poll would just be among qualified likely voters in the election in question, where as polymarket is just gambling addicts anywhere on the planet.
But at the same time Polymarket seems a bit like a self fulfilling prophecy - because Polymarket says something, it by itself increases the odds of that event happening; and in the cases where it isn’t this way, look for the large amount of bets 2 hours before the event in questing, a.k.a the “GOP spike”.
On the other hand, it’s well designed to surface inside information. Exactly the thing that lots of people complain about, but it’s a good thing if you’d like to use the prediction market to make predictions like this.
Lol
Did you say thank you?
After killing the Pope, and destroying Orban’s political career, Vance is the Political Grim Reaper.
He should spend more time with Trump.
Since then, betting markets show Orbán’s stock has fallen marginally, though there is no suggestion that his declining fortunes have been caused by Vance’s intervention.
Betting markets. Grain of salt taken.
If an STD were human. It would be J.D. Vance.
Well, that’d be one fo the first times Vance has done something that’s worth a shit, even if it were inadvertent.
Even bad people can be useful! Even if only as a bad example.
the Trump bump killed Pierre Poilievre’s 30% lead in Canada, and even after the loss, his MPs are all looking to defect to the Liberals.
These guys are clueless, this is not what Canada wants to see in political leadership…
I wouldn’t mind if Carney or Lewis went on JRE though.
One can only hope.
JD baby face screaming about how EU tries to affect the voting, proceeds to manipulate the public with his speech. Ooookeydokay
JD Vance is the human equivalent of a sad trombone
I know he kills Orban’s chances just like he killed the pope.
