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Cake day: May 11th, 2025

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  • Ukraine seems to be more of a unipolar project than a multipolar project. The important part is the last part of the last sentence.

    David C. Hendrickson, in his article in Foreign Affairs on November 1, 1997, saw the core of the book as the ambitious strategy of NATO to move eastward to Ukraine’s Russian border and vigorously support the newly independent republics of Central Asia and the Caucasus, which is an integral part of what Hendrickson said could be called a “tough love” strategy for the Russians. Hendrickson considers “this great project” to be problematic for two reasons: the “excessive expansion of Western institutions” could well introduce centrifugal forces into it; moreover, Brzezinski’s “test of what legitimate Russian interests are” seems to be so strict that even a democratic Russia would probably “fail”.

    https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Grand_Chessboard

    Of course there can also be wars in the multipolar world. But there are enough started by the US that peace seems to be secondary.





  • They don’t have those plans. That’s insinuated to distract from what the minister actually said and implied.

    I have poined this out in the other post: https://feddit.org/post/15221478

    This article is slightly misleading if compared with the SCMP article which has big implications on understanding the global power dynamics. Draw your own conclusions.

    SCMP:

    Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi told the European Union’s top diplomat on Wednesday that Beijing does not want to see a Russian loss in Ukraine because it fears the United States would then shift its whole focus to Beijing, according to several people familiar with the exchange.

    https://www.scmp.com/news/china/diplomacy/article/3316875/china-tells-eu-it-cannot-afford-russian-loss-ukraine-war-sources-say

    https://web.archive.org/web/20250704053134/https://www.scmp.com/news/china/diplomacy/article/3316875/china-tells-eu-it-cannot-afford-russian-loss-ukraine-war-sources-say

    vs

    As the war in Ukraine drags on, Wang’s reported comments suggest that Russia’s war in Ukraine may serve China’s strategic needs as focus is deviated away from Beijing’s mounting preparation to launch its own possible invasion into Taiwan.

    It’s subtle, but the attack on Taiwan is an interpretation. The minister means something else.

    If the economic development continues, Taiwan will want to join China. Thus the focus of the US is interpreted differently by China, more like the focus Iraq or Afghanistan received.

    SCMP:

    During a marathon four-hour debate on a wide range of geopolitical and commercial grievances, Wang was said to have given Kallas – the former Estonian prime minister who only late last year took up her role as the bloc’s de facto foreign affairs chief – several “history lessons and lectures”.

    Some EU officials felt he was giving her a lesson in realpolitik, part of which focused on Beijing’s belief that Washington will soon turn its full attention eastward, two officials said. One interpretation of Wang’s statement in Brussels is that while China did not ask for the war, its prolongation may suit Beijing’s strategic needs, so long as the US remains engaged in Ukraine.

    vs

    that they believed Wang was providing Kallas with a lesson in realpolitik during the four-hour encounter.

    No mentioning of the “history lessons and lectures”, which is a friendlier way of saying that he has referenced past behavior that suggest that the EU is in the wrong.

    There seems to be ignorance about what is going to happen even right at the top of the EU. The Chinese minister is calling bullshit. Yet Kallas must have already known better.



  • and the only way toward freedom is a society were it is not so extreme.

    That is not a way. Who should create the society?

    OP argued that there are no resources left. Well, then that’s the way till the robots make humans unnecessary.

    If people want to get out, they have to do something. Don’t work harder, consume smarter. Not the poorest have to start but those who make two vacations per year. Spend that money wisely and grow from there.

    Thanks for the song.







  • You don’t send your best troops into a position they can’t get out of if you don’t expect results.

    They sent like 3 helicopters of their best looking soldiers. Why wouldn’t they try, at least it binds Ukrainian attention? But it’s muddy. To me it doesn’t look like a serious attack. They were also retreating at the same time as there was the peace treaty and the claim is that the retreat was part of the deal. I will judge that when the cloak of war is gone.

    The joined military exercises, the advisers, the defence lines and the time it took to take Grozny. That requires a level of ignorance by the Russians that is very unlikely.

    But even if they expected an easy victory, does that change that Ukraine is used to undermine and ultimately conquer Russia?

    Russia was always going to push something to the point where other nations wouldn’t let them anymore. It’s not like Ukraine is the first sovereign nation they’ve invaded.

    No. They used conflicts to prevent Nato expansions at their borders. Which souvereign nation do you have in mind?

    Iraq, Libya, Syria. How can the West throw stones? I can understand and accept why we fight those wars. But without discussing the true motives we have essentially given up on our democracy while spreading democracy.

    They are still purchasing it,

    They are not purchasing it directly. Germany is paying for a war that is against their strategic advantage while handing over profits to other countries.

    which is dumb because it increases they amount the need to spend in Ukraine

    Russia won’t go broke. If Russia loses, China is next. China will always send enough money.

    Gas is a liquid commodity. Russia could export to Algeria and Libya and they export their own gas to the EU. The more complicated the more costs. Russia will always sell gas and the EU will always import gas.

    I think 2027 capacity will be there and Russia will be out. How much money was that for Russia? I don’t think that changed the war but immensely helped the EU.

    https://www.bundesnetzagentur.de/SharedDocs/Pressemitteilungen/EN/2023/20230105_RueckblickGas2022.html

    20% from Russia are 300 TWh. At 30 Euro per MWh that’s 9 billion Euro.

    This only increases costs for the EU and moves industries to other countries.

    That’s dumb, especially since Germany could still use North Stream. Cui bono again.