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Cake day: July 1st, 2023

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  • A big part of this decision is happening right now at Camp David with his family, according to the article:

    President Joe Biden is expected to discuss the future of his re-election campaign with family at Camp David on Sunday, following a nationally televised debate Thursday that left many fellow Democrats worried about his ability to beat former President Donald trump in November, according to five people familiar with the matter.

    Let’s face reality:

    • Biden is TEN POINTS nationally below where he was at this time in 2020.
    • Biden is losing in every single battleground state.
    • Biden is losing a large chunk of black and Hispanic voters compared to his 2020 run.
    • Biden’s aggregate approval ratings for Presidency are 37.7% with 56.7% disapproval.

    … Biden asked for that debate because he was desperate to break the downward trend and reach these battleground swing-state voters. That backfired in the worst possible way.

    The time is now, before the convention, and with enough time for an alternative candidate to be selected and ramp up campaigning. There are half a dozen candidates who fit the bill and have a semi-national profile, are YOUNGER, and have enough charisma and debate skills to beat Trump — almost by default by being a fresh face and younger

    Anyone who says there isn’t enough time doesn’t understand just how much FREE viral media attention this would all receive. Every single person should be pushing for this to happen now. Because if Biden makes another gaffe like this in October or a medical emergency, then we are REALLY fucked.




  • You know I agree with much of what you say here. All I’ll say is that while there’s uncertainty in the outcome of this route, I’m convinced there is certainty at this point that Joe Biden will lose. Why? Because there is all there is to know about Joe Biden. Call it media saturation; diminishing returns… There is fundamentally nothing Joe Biden can do or say that people don’t already know and now their minds are pretty much made up. The desperation-play of even asking for that debate shows the Biden campaign knows how bad of a position they’re in… And it of course backfired tremendously.

    So at this point, I view it as uncertainty versus a known loss.

    And in that respect, I’m looking at this alternate path as appealing to those lizard-brain American Idol-watching popularity-contest voters. If we could distill election cycles down to a handful of things, chief among them would be “People Vote for the more interesting candidate” and “People vote for the fresher face” – Within the backdrop of age being a huge issue for >70% of American voters when polled, that rings even more truthful now.

    So personally, I say we take the chance.




  • Are you asking that because you believe nobody is lining up wanting to be President, or that there is no candidate who fits that bill? Because I can think of half a dozen who both fit the bill and have obvious political ambitions:

    • Whitmer
    • Newsom
    • Buttigieg
    • Booker
    • Abrams
    • Warnock.

    All far more youthful; all far more charismatic. All who have enough national name recognition and would trounce Trump in debates and contrast of age alone.

    The question to me isn’t, “who else,” it’s, “Will Biden voluntarily step down and endorse such a person at the convention?”

    The polls prove this could work:nobody likes either candidate, people want new faces, and age is a problem. Just give them another choice on the Democratic ticket and it’s game-over for the convicted felon. If I could I’d be money this gives better odds than sticking it out with Biden.






  • Everyone from Jon Stewart to Pod Save America recognize Biden had one of the worst debate performances in history. Focus groups of undecided voters who watched said Biden lost.

    Let’s stay in reality and face the facts. Let’s not stoop to maga alt-reality.

    Instead let’s just fix the issue at hand, assuage the concerns of voters, and improve our odds of beating Trump. Because there is no good data to support a Biden victory.





  • Look I’m from such a small Pennsylvania town. Rural Appalachian. Coal mines and specialty steel production most notably.

    Both of you are right, and the problems feed back into each other to some extent.

    After my family migrated west more than a decade ago, every single time we go back to PA to visit family, attend a funeral and so forth — it just keeps looking more and more run down. Honestly the place is a shit-hole nowadays. I’m sad to see my old county went for Trump by 70%. You couldn’t pay me enough to move my family back.

    The young, educated, smart, and compassionate folks leave and GTFO asap — both for jobs, and for more diversity and tolerance. The sad part is I remember watching a slew of documentaries in the early 2000s forewarning of what would happen to these small-towns…

    • Because of shipping manufacturing off elsewhere.
    • Because of big box corporate eating up local shops, eroding community and draining out the money.
    • Because administrations were unwilling to break the hard news that things like coal mines wouldn’t last forever and we’d have to help retrain and get them to new modern job sectors.

    No doubt these communities feel the pressures they’re complaining about; they’ve just been exploited by right-wing media about who is responsible: the southern migrant more desperate than them, the trans, the homosexuals, the liberals, etc…

    @FlyingSquid is also right that there is FAR more bigotry among these communities as well; and that ties back to not being well-traveled, our education system collapsing, and the right-wing fearmongering machine.

    Edit: Shit, Inside Out 3 should be about being inside the head of a MAGA supporter.