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Cake day: 2023年6月30日

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  • I use YouTube for tutorials, education, and entertainment all the time. And YouTube music is how I listen to all my music.

    I’ve been paying for the YouTube premium version for my family since day one.

    Recently they took away my grandfathered-in pricing. It really costs me a ton of money.

    But I remember that I’m keeping ads off my screens, my parents’ screens, and my kids screens… And we all use YouTube music all the time… So…

    Yeah, a lot of money, but honestly, probably the best subscription I have.

    I could never go back to ads.





  • You’re wandering into one of the great questions of our age: what is intelligence? I don’t have a great answer. All I know is that gpt-4 can REASON, and does so better than the average human.

    It’s gpt-4 self-aware? Yes. To an extent. It knows what it is, and can use that information in its reasoning. It knows it’s an LLM, but not which model.

    Can it make judgement calls? Yes. Better than the average human.

    Understand meaning? Absolutely. To a jaw-dropping extent.

    Accuracy and correctness… Depends on the type of question.

    What you need to understand is that gpt-4 isn’t a whole brain. Think of it as if we have managed to reproduce the language center of the brain. I believe this is mechanism for higher reasoning in the human brain.

    But just as in humans with right-brain injuries, the language center is disconnected from reality at times.

    So, when you think about gpt-4 as the most important, difficult to solve part of the brain, you start to understand that with some minimal supporting infrastructure, you now have something very similar to a complete brain.

    You can use vector databases to give it long-term memory, and any kind of data retrieval used to augment it’s prompts improved accuracy and reduces hallucinations almost entirely.

    With my very mediocre programming skills, I managed to build a system that is curious, has a long-term memory, and do a wide variety of tasks, enough to easily replace an entire customer service, tech support team, sales team, and marketing team.

    That’s just ME, and working with the gpt-4 that’s available to the public with a bunch of guardrails on it. Today.

    Imagine a less-restricted system, with infrastructure built by an experienced enterprise coding team, and with just one more generation of LLM improvement? That could wipe out half the white collar workforce.

    If LLM improvement was only geometric, and not even exponential (as it clearly is), in 10 years these things will be smarter AND MORE CREATIVE than all humans.

    The truth is that we’re going to be there in 5 years.




  • This is just the smallest tip of the iceberg.

    I’ve been working with gpt-4 since the week it came out, and I guarantee you that even if it never became any more advanced, it could already put at least 30% of the white collar workforce out of business.

    The only reason it hasn’t is because companies have barely started to comprehend what it can do.

    Within 5 years the entire world will have been revolutionized by this technology. Jobs will evaporate faster than anyone is talking about.

    If you’re very smart, and you begin to use gpt-4 to write the tools that will replace you, then you MIGHT have 10 good years left in this economy before humans are all but obsolete.

    If you’re not staying up nights, scared shitless by what’s coming, it’s because you don’t really understand what gpt-4 can do.





  • Think of it this way:

    It’s indisputably evil what the United States did in stealing land and commiting genocide against the Native Americans. (I’d argue that Israel’s founding was far more just, but let’s say for a moment that it was equally horrific).

    So, if today, Native Americans were launching thousands of rockets from their reservations, targeting civilians, targeting kids, and saying they won’t stop until we give them California, New York, New England, half of Washington DC, AND adopt a political reform that will inevitably lead to dissolving democracy and replacing it with a theocracy…

    What the hell would you say the solution to that is?

    At what point would you say to the Native Americans, “what happened to you was a tragedy, but the reality is we’re so far down this road it will never be undone. We need to find a way to move forward with that shared reality”?

    Because that’s the situation in Israel.

    The Palestinians are demanding (with no leverage) that Israel adopt a peace deal that would destroy Israel’s form of government and their ability to defend themselves from hostile nations (which they are surrounded by).

    Israel will never, ever, ever, ever, ever, ever do that. They can’t. It would be governmental malpractice to do it.

    So what, they are just supposed to let the Palestinians launch thousands of rockets at them … out of guilt?

    There’s only ONE way this ends: Palestinians admit that they lost. It might not be fair. It might not be justice. But it is REALITY.

    And then they need to take the best peace deal Israel is willing to offer.

    … this is the reality they walked away from 20+ years ago.

    That’s an entire generation of Palestinian children growing up in an incredibly shitty situation.

    Meanwhile, Israel said “fuck this”, built an iron dome defense system, built a border fence, and have economically thrived.

    They can literally keep going like this indefinitely. And as time goes on they only get more and more bitter at the Palestinian terrorism. So they keep leaning harder and harder on hardliner politicians, who say "well, if Palestinians are going to be our enemies no matter what, why shouldn’t we just take and take and take?



  • For those who don’t want to read a whole article:

    The Oslo Accords were a cycle of negotiations and agreements. With every round, it looked like they were getting closer to an agreement.

    In the end the Palestinian leader, Yasser Arafat killed the negotiation at camp David. He would not budge on several issues, but key among them was “right of return”.

    Essentially “right of return” would instantly give full citizenship and voting rights to a vast amount of fantastic anti-Jewish Arabs, who would very shortly thereafter have been able to vote Israel out of existence by turning it from a democracy into a Muslim theocracy. And like all other Muslim theocracies, they would have been terrible if not genocidal to their Jewish citizens.

    Arafat not only quit the peace process, he declared a “second antifada” … meaning a new call for the most foul terrorism: blowing up school buses, ambulances, targeting Jewish children for death, etc.

    A bit later when Arafat died, we found out WHY he killed the peace process: while his people were impoverished and suffering, Arafat himself was hoarding nearly A BILLION DOLLARS in what was supposed to be humanitarian aid money for this people.

    Arafat stopped the piece process because war was allowing him to retain power, and grow his obscene wealth.



  • We’re dealing with drought and water restrictions in the US, too. Is it because we’re genocidal lunatics who hate citizens of certain states?

    The real complaint here isn’t that the Palestinians are going thirsty. It’s that they aren’t getting enough water to farm?

    I’m not quite sure what Palestinians thought was going to happen when they rejected peace offer after peace offer, and turned instead to non-stop terrorism.

    Did they think Israelis were going to say: “oh, sure, you’re constantly launching thousands of rockets at our kids, but hey, let us spend a ton of money upgrading your infrastructure for you.”

    Palestinians are vastly outmatched militarily, so for decades they’ve had exactly two options: make peace with Israel on their terms, or keep doing terrorism, and hoping that they’ll get international sympathy when Israel retaliates, and that international pressure will force Israel to … accept a peace treaty that leaves Israel with indefensible borders and an influx of Palestinian citizens that would use their vote to turn Israel into a Jew-hating Muslim theocracy.

    At a certain point, you’d think Palestinians would start caring more about their kids’ futures than their hatred of Israel.

    If they’d accepted peace under the offer made during the Oslo Accords, they would have had their own state for about 30 years now, with the ability to grow an economy, manage their own infrastructure, etc.