Preliminary assessment: Supreme leader likely hurt in Israeli strike • Netanyahu says objective to end Ayatollah's regime • Trump confirms US operation in Iran, tells IRGC to lay down arms
Israel and the US have begun their war on Iran with a “regime change” as the stated goal. If they succeed, Israel cements its expansionist goals and the middle east is fucked. If Iran succeeds, Israel is fucked.
There’s a small chance of a stalemate and both give up and we go back to “normal” after a whole lot of death and destruction.
The entire middle east is going to be affected either way, and to a lesser extent the world as energy distribution from the gulf will be effected.
Also, don’t forget, the US attempts to cancel elections due to being in the middle of a war, despite extensive historical precedent of still holding elections during wartime.
I think a “stalemate” is more likely than you suspect - the Iranian and Israeli regimes both benefit from having the other one to demonize.
I suppose regime change is the ideal goal, but even just more war to galvanize support around Netanyahu in an election year in Israel is a win for him.
Regime change would probably mean the same thing that happened in Iraq or Afghanistan. The invading countries will leave a power vacuum and some extremist group is going to take advantage. In Iraq they had ISIS which required a whole new invasion to stop and in Afghanistan the Taliban is now stronger than before the US invasion.
With how much bombing the US and Israel are preparing to do, a stalemate won’t come without major destruction in Israel and US bases. I’m not sure that’ll be helpful for Satanyahu’s campaign.
Also, Trump gets a massive distraction - which he presently critically needs with his approval ratings at the lowest level in either of his presidencies, and the lowest level for the first 100 days of a presidency in 80 years.
Err, wtf is happening?
Israel and the US have begun their war on Iran with a “regime change” as the stated goal. If they succeed, Israel cements its expansionist goals and the middle east is fucked. If Iran succeeds, Israel is fucked.
There’s a small chance of a stalemate and both give up and we go back to “normal” after a whole lot of death and destruction.
The entire middle east is going to be affected either way, and to a lesser extent the world as energy distribution from the gulf will be effected.
Also, don’t forget, the US attempts to cancel elections due to being in the middle of a war, despite extensive historical precedent of still holding elections during wartime.
I think a “stalemate” is more likely than you suspect - the Iranian and Israeli regimes both benefit from having the other one to demonize. I suppose regime change is the ideal goal, but even just more war to galvanize support around Netanyahu in an election year in Israel is a win for him.
Regime change would probably mean the same thing that happened in Iraq or Afghanistan. The invading countries will leave a power vacuum and some extremist group is going to take advantage. In Iraq they had ISIS which required a whole new invasion to stop and in Afghanistan the Taliban is now stronger than before the US invasion.
With how much bombing the US and Israel are preparing to do, a stalemate won’t come without major destruction in Israel and US bases. I’m not sure that’ll be helpful for Satanyahu’s campaign.
So, who profits from this?
Israel primarily, US second.
Also, Trump gets a massive distraction - which he presently critically needs with his approval ratings at the lowest level in either of his presidencies, and the lowest level for the first 100 days of a presidency in 80 years.
Uhh the middle east has been fucked for centuries. Nothing thats happening will change any of that.